According to the Analytical News Agency, the military aggression by the U.S.\u2013Zionist coalition against the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with Iran\u2019s strategic move to regulate vessel traffic in the Strait of Hormuz in response to ships linked to hostile countries, has triggered an energy crisis across the globe. Since the onset of the conflict, analysts have warned that oil prices could reach $150 or even $200 per barrel if the war continues and restrictions on the energy market persist.<\/p>\n

However, a look at oil trading boards in major global markets shows that prices have so far reached around $130 per barrel. At the same time, due to what has been described as the White House\u2019s \u201crhetorical management\u201d strategy\u2014aimed at preventing a sharp surge in energy prices\u2014oil prices have fluctuated in a cyclical pattern depending on political and military developments. Nevertheless, a closer look at actual transactions reveals a different reality: what is traded on commodity markets largely reflects pre-sold oil, while the urgent need of global industries for fuel has driven spot (physical) oil prices significantly higher than listed figures.<\/p>\n

In this regard, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Speaker of Parliament, wrote on the social platform X: \u201cBoth digital (paper) oil prices and bonds are determined by market sentiment, and both are fragile constructs that cannot be relied upon. The true benchmark is the price of physical oil\u2014the price at which oil is actually bought and sold, based on real market transactions. At least in the case of oil, there is an index for physical prices that reveals the extent of manipulation in digital oil pricing, whereas in bonds, everything is built on a fragile foundation.\u201d<\/p>\n

Saudi Arabia\u2019s Finance Minister Mohammed Al-Jadaan also commented on physical oil prices on X, stating: \u201cThe price you see on your phone screen is $90, but if you try to buy oil at that price, I can only wish you good luck. Real prices in recent weeks have been $120, $130, $140, $150, and even $160 per barrel.\u201d<\/p>\n

Price Gap Between Physical and Futures Oil<\/p>\n

In an interview with our correspondent, energy market expert Mostafa Saeidi said that at the beginning of the U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran, it was predicted that if the war entered its second month and the Strait of Hormuz remained closed, the use of global strategic energy reserves would drive prices higher\u2014a scenario that has now materialized, with oil reaching $140 per barrel.<\/p>\n

He added that if the conflict persists into a second month, price increases would accelerate due to the depletion of reserves, potentially pushing prices from $120 to $130 or even $140 per barrel.<\/p>\n

Saeidi also noted that alongside physical oil transactions, futures trading plays a major role in global markets. He claimed that the U.S. government and its Treasury Department have intervened in oil futures markets, manipulating prices and creating a gap between physical and futures oil prices.<\/p>\n

According to Saeidi, the timeline for closing this price gap depends on how markets interpret the political conditions affecting the energy sector, with some research institutions suggesting it could take up to two months for conditions to normalize.<\/p>\n

He emphasized that under normal circumstances, futures and physical oil prices should not diverge significantly. Currently, physical oil prices range between $120 and $130 per barrel, reaching as high as $140 in the Persian Gulf region.<\/p>\n

Paper Trading in the Oil Futures Market<\/p>\n

Saeidi stressed that the futures oil market is largely driven by paper transactions. \u201cOil prices are mostly reflected through these paper trades. Right now, Oman crude is priced between $140 and $150 per barrel in physical terms, but since the benchmark is based on futures trading, prices appear lower,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

He explained that futures contracts reflect prices for delivery months ahead, whereas physical oil prices represent immediate transactions between buyers and sellers. Therefore, futures markets tend to involve speculation and financial maneuvering.<\/p>\n

Saeidi added that the U.S. has used this mechanism to keep oil prices seemingly around $100 per barrel. However, he noted that due to global supply and demand dynamics, futures prices will eventually converge with physical prices, making it difficult to maintain such discrepancies over time.<\/p>\n

He warned that as oil shortages become more evident and supply tightens, prices will continue to rise\u2014especially if current restrictions persist. Given oil\u2019s high price elasticity and lack of substitutes, upward pressure on prices is likely to intensify.<\/p>\n

East Asia Most Vulnerable to Rising Oil Prices<\/p>\n

Responding to a question about which energy-consuming countries would suffer most if tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf continue, Saeidi said East Asia would bear the greatest economic impact. He added that countries like India and Pakistan, whose agriculture depends heavily on chemical fertilizers, would also be affected, leading to reduced agricultural output.<\/p>\n

He pointed to China\u2019s strategic energy reserves, noting that the country could meet its needs for up to three months even without new imports. Nonetheless, China continues to purchase and stockpile oil at high prices to mitigate potential damage.<\/p>\n

Saeidi also highlighted Europe\u2019s energy dependence. Despite efforts to reduce reliance on Russian gas following the Ukraine war, Europe has become increasingly dependent on liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) from the Middle East, particularly Qatar. However, due to the U.S. conflict with Iran, exports from Qatar have reportedly dropped to zero.<\/p>\n

He warned that if Europe cannot replenish its gas reserves, it may face significant challenges in the coming months.<\/p>\n

The expert further noted that rising oil prices have increased aviation fuel costs, negatively impacting both the airline and tourism industries. Many of the consequences of rising oil and gas prices, he said, will become more apparent in the long term, particularly for countries reliant on tourism revenues.<\/p>\n

Saeidi also stated that the global inflationary impact of rising energy prices will not leave Iran unaffected. \u201cThe key question is how resilient countries are in facing these pressures\u2014which side can endure longer until the other accepts conditions and the conflict ends,\u201d he said.<\/p>\n

Government Focus Should Be on Essential Goods Supply<\/p>\n

Saeidi emphasized that to enhance national resilience, authorities should prioritize the rapid supply of essential goods to prevent market disruptions, followed by securing raw materials for production units.<\/p>\n

Finally, addressing the possibility of a prolonged \u201cno war, no peace\u201d situation or a fragile ceasefire, he said future oil price movements would depend on various factors, including Iran\u2019s policies on maritime traffic and the continuation of U.S. naval restrictions.<\/p>\n

End of Report<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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